Executive Investment Analysis
A comprehensive econometric analysis of global oilseed supply chains. India imports $18.3 billion in edible oils annually—representing a 60% consumption gap that ensures sustained demand through 2030.
Annual Import Value
Tonnes Soybean Oil (2024-25)
Expected IRR (Tanzania)
Of five target oilseeds, only soybean and sunflower present viable opportunities for India export. Peanut, sesame, and cottonseed face zero or negligible import demand. India is self-sufficient or a net exporter in these categories.
| Oil Type | India Imports | Growth Rate | Tariff (Crude) | Market Viability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybean Oil | 5.47 MT (2024-25 Record) | +36% YoY | 16.5% | Excellent |
| Sunflower Oil | 2.6-3.0 MT | Stable | 16.5% | Excellent |
| Palm Oil | 7.58 MT | Growing | 16.5% | High (Competitive) |
| Rice Bran Oil | 0.8-1.2 MT | +8% YoY | 16.5% | Good |
| Canola/Rapeseed Oil | 0.3-0.5 MT | Stable | 16.5% | Moderate |
| Peanut/Groundnut | 0 MT (Exporter) | N/A | 16.5% | No Opportunity |
| Sesame Oil | 1,220 T (Negligible) | Minimal | 16.5% | Minimal Demand |
| Cottonseed Oil | 5,000 T (Negligible) | Minimal | 16.5% | Zero Demand |
| Corn Oil | 100-200 T (Negligible) | Minimal | 16.5% | Limited Interest |
25+ countries evaluated. Only 3 countries meet all criteria: structural oilseed surplus, political stability, and viable India market access with preferential tariff or logistics advantage.
8.25% effective duty (50% tariff discount via DFTP) + 14-day direct port access to India + Regional duty-free soybean supply (Zambia 1.15MT) = 22-26% IRR
1.83MT sunflower production (record 2024) + Massive EAEU supply certainty but 35% MFN tariff penalty = 15-18% IRR
Ethiopia, Sudan, Myanmar, Pakistan, Burkina Faso, Bangladesh, Nepal, Indonesia/Malaysia, Afghanistan
Three overlapping advantages compound to create an unbeatable competitive position: Tariff arbitrage (8.25% vs 35.75% refined; saves $170/ton), Logistics efficiency (14 days vs 30+ days), and Regional sourcing (Duty-free SADC access).
*Crude oil duties. Tanzania 8.25% (50% tariff discount) vs Standard MFN (16.5%) vs Refined penalty (35.75%)
*Soybean (Argentina dominates 53%). Sunflower (Russia dominates 55-60%, geopolitical risk)
Unmatched Competitive Positioning
8.25% Tanzania duty (50% discount) vs 16.5% standard crude. Saves $99/ton on crude; refined oil advantage reaches $170/ton. Combined facility advantage: $6.7M+/year on 68K ton facility.
Zambia (1.15MT soybean surplus) + Tanzania (300-350K tons sunflower) via duty-free SADC. Zero dependency on conflict-prone regions.
14-day direct sea transit to India vs 25-30 days overland. Faster cash conversion + lower working capital.
Market Context: India imports 5.47MT soybean oil (growing +36% YoY) + 2.6-3.0MT sunflower oil (supply-constrained by Russia/Ukraine). No single supplier controls India's sunflower market, creating entry opportunity. Tanzania's dual-season harvests (March-May, October-November) provide year-round supply certainty versus Black Sea's August-October concentration.
📊 INVESTMENT
$2.0-2.7M
⚙️ CAPACITY
30 tons/day crude extraction
📈 EXPECTED RETURN
22-26% IRR
🎯 FOCUS
Dual Oil Export (Sunflower + Soybean)
Why Tanzania: 50% Tariff Discount (8.25% effective), 14-day direct port access, and duty-free regional sourcing (Zambia/EAC).
📊 INVESTMENT
$2.5-3.3M
⚙️ CAPACITY
40-50 tons/day extraction
📈 EXPECTED RETURN
15-18% IRR
🎯 FOCUS
Supply Security (Massive Volume)
Why Kazakhstan: Massive integrated regional supply (Russia + Central Asia), but suffers from 35% tariff penalty and longer logistics.
📊 VERDICT
REJECTED
⚙️ CONCEPT
Kazakhstan Sourcing + Tanzania Processing
📉 DOWNSIDE
$200-300/ton extra transport
🎯 RESULT
Complexity offsets tariff benefits
Why Rejected: Added complexity and logistics costs ($200-300/ton) eliminate the tariff advantage. Simpler to source regionally.
✓ Crude Oil Focus
19.25% customs differential favors crude. India's refiners prefer crude imports for local processing.
✓ Long-Term Contracts
Indian importers (Adani Wilmar, Cargill, Ruchi) require supply consistency. Lock-in relationships early.
✓ FSSAI Certification
Food Safety & Standards Authority certification mandatory pre-export. Factor 2-3 months lead time.
✓ Tariff Buffer Planning
India changed tariffs 7 times (2021-2025). Build 15% margin buffer into pricing models.
✓ Regional Trade Compliance
SADC/EAC duty-free frameworks require proper documentation to ensure 0% input tariffs.
✓ Export Approvals
Secure government export permits early. Domestic allocation (15-20%) may be required.